July 2026 · E-commerce Notes

July’s biggest e-commerce stories looked positive on the surface: record seasonal spending, strong platform growth, and improving online demand in Europe.

Underneath them, the picture was more cautious. Shoppers waited for deals, retailers brought inventory forward, and regulators questioned how pricing technology was being used.

Consumer Behavior & Seasonal Demand

Back to School Spending Reaches Record Levels, but Shoppers Remain Cautious

Back to school spending in the United States is forecast to reach record levels in 2026.

Spending for K 12 students is expected to total $43.3 billion, up from $39.4 billion in 2025. College related spending is forecast to reach $103.5 billion, exceeding $100 billion for the first time.

The total is high but shopper confidence is not.

Almost half of consumers who had not completed much of their shopping were waiting for better deals. More than half had already purchased school supplies during promotional events such as Prime Day, Target Circle Deal Days, and Walmart Deals.

Families are also becoming more selective about what they buy before the school year begins. School supplies and technology are being prioritized, while apparel purchases are increasingly spread throughout the year.

Circana expects children’s apparel unit demand to decline during the third quarter, even as consumers spend more per item. Fifty seven percent of surveyed shoppers said they were at least somewhat concerned about how prices would affect their clothing and footwear budgets.

For retailers, that puts more pressure on promotion timing and category planning. A record season can still disappoint if demand shifts between categories or purchases happen later than expected.

Sources
- ⁠https://www.retaildive.com/news/back-to-school-record-high-forecast-nrf/825458/
- ⁠https://www.retaildive.com/news/back-to-school-shoppers-prioritize-essentials-apparel-sporting-goods/826456/
- ⁠https://www.forbes.com/sites/joanverdon/2026/07/23/parents-will-spend-big-for-back-to-school-despite-financial-stress/
- ⁠https://www.forbes.com/sites/naveenjaggi/2026/07/16/back-to-school-spending-is-up-and-so-are-parents-expectations/

Platforms, Marketplaces & Fulfillment

Amazon’s Growth Extends Across Commerce, Advertising, and Fulfillment

Amazon reported $200.6 billion in net sales for the second quarter of 2026, representing 20% year over year growth.

Advertising revenue increased 26% to $19.8 billion, while AI assisted shopping became a more visible part of Amazon’s performance. More than 350 million customers had used Alexa for Shopping during the previous 12 months, with active users nearly doubling and interactions increasing fivefold year over year.

Amazon also said shoppers who clicked a sponsored prompt converted 48% more often and spent 21% more on average than shoppers who did not. The results suggest that conversational shopping is becoming more closely connected to Amazon’s advertising business.

Fulfillment remained another major growth driver. Amazon delivered more than 40% more items through same day or overnight delivery during the first half of 2026.

Prime Day affected how the quarter was read as well. Amazon moved the event from July to June, placing the four day promotional period inside its second fiscal quarter and shifting sales that would previously have appeared in Q3.

Sources
- https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/article/amazon-sales/
- https://www.retaildive.com/news/amazon-prime-day-details-aws-Q2/826694/

Pricing, Regulation & Operational Pressure

Personalized Pricing Faces Greater Regulatory Scrutiny

New Jersey signed the Fair Price Protection Act in July, banning businesses from using consumer data to set individualized prices.

The law does not prohibit broad price changes based on demand, inventory, or market conditions. It targets prices personalized using individual consumer data.

The legislation also introduces a one year pause on new electronic shelf label adoption while the state examines whether the technology could make price changes less transparent to shoppers. Existing loyalty discounts and offers available to broadly defined groups are not prohibited.

Retailers have long adjusted prices in response to competition, demand, and stock levels. The regulatory concern is what policymakers describe as surveillance pricing, where personal characteristics or behavioral data may influence the price shown to an individual shopper without their knowledge.

Pricing technology is becoming a governance issue as much as an optimization tool.

Source
- https://www.retaildive.com/news/new-jersey-bans-dynamic-pricing/826563/

Retailers Bring Inventory Forward as Tariff Uncertainty Continues

Retailers increased imports during July ahead of potential tariff changes expected in August.

Import volume at major U.S. container ports was forecast to reach a record level, with much of the increase linked to companies bringing inventory into the country earlier than planned. July volume was expected to grow 3.3% year over year, followed by a projected 4.5% decline in August.

Bringing goods forward may reduce exposure to higher duties and protect near term availability, but it also shifts the pressure elsewhere.

Retailers may carry more inventory for longer, commit working capital earlier, and face greater markdown pressure if demand does not match forecasts. Purchasing teams that once worked around relatively stable seasonal calendars are now adjusting order timing in response to trade policy.

If demand falls short, inventory brought forward to avoid tariffs can quickly become excess stock that requires deeper promotions later.

Sources
- https://www.retaildive.com/news/retailers-stock-up-inventory-expected-tariff-changes/825053/
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/markfaithfull/2026/07/24/if-retailers-thought-us-trade-tarrifs-were-over-think-again/

Regional Market Highlights

European Online Growth Improves, but the Drivers Differ by Market

Online retail sales values in the United Kingdom increased 11.7% year over year during the second quarter.

In June alone, online sales increased 14.4%, while the online share of total retail reached 29.4%, its highest level since April 2021. Promotions and warm weather supported categories including clothing, outdoor products, sporting goods, fans, and air conditioners.

The rebound is encouraging, but it appears closely tied to promotional activity, weather, and category demand.

Germany also grew, but more of that growth was captured by marketplaces and international platforms.

German online turnover increased 4.3% during the first half of 2026, with second quarter growth accelerating to 5.1%. Marketplaces grew 6.4%, outperforming traditional online shops and multichannel retailers.

Asian platforms grew considerably faster than the wider market. Their German revenue increased 20%, with Temu, Shein, and AliExpress accounting for around one in every 20 euros spent online.

AI is also beginning to influence product research, although shopper trust remains limited. Only 12.7% of surveyed online customers said they would follow a chatbot recommendation without conducting additional research.

Across both markets, the headline is growth. The more important question is what is driving it and which platforms are capturing it.

Sources
- https://ecommercenews.eu/online-retail-sales-surge-in-the-united-kingdom/
- https://ecommercenews.eu/german-ecommerce-increases-4-3-in-first-half-2026/

Closing Observation

Consumers are waiting for value, retailers are managing greater inventory and pricing risk, and platforms are connecting more parts of the shopping journey inside the same ecosystem.

More technology and more promotions will not solve the harder problem: knowing where growth is actually coming from.

We will continue tracking these shifts month by month.